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Bears Take Control of PSX as Tensions between Pakistan and India Escalate

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a rollercoaster of emotions on Monday as shares took control of the trade floor, plummeting over 1,400 points in intraday trading. The benchmark KSE-100 index, which had shown a brief respite from volatility, reversed its gains and declined more than 1,400 points after a week of heightened tensions between Pakistan and India. **Key Highlights:**

* The benchmark KSE-100 index climbed by 941.79 points, or 0.82 per cent, to stand at 116,411.13 from the previous close of 115,469.34 at 10:05am. * However, at 3:03pm, selling pressure ensued as the index decreased by 969.19 points, or 0.84pc, to stand at 114,500.15 from the previous close. * The index finally closed at 114,063.90, down by 1,405.44 points or 1.22pc, from the last close. **Expert Analysis:**

Several experts weighed in on the market’s performance, attributing the volatility to the escalating tensions between Pakistan and India. * Awais Ashraf, director research at AKD Securities, stated, “Corporate results of heavyweight companies caused the index to fluctuate in today’s trading session. While investors remained cautious due to heightened tensions between Pakistan and India,” he added. * Mohammed Sohail, chief executive of Topline Securities, noted, “Though some buying was seen in the morning session amid no major development on Pak-India front, investors remained cautious fearing that coming few days seem crucial in the ongoing tension between the two neighbours.”

* Yousuf M. Farooq, director research at Chase Securities, observed, “The market opened slightly higher today and then pulled back as initial excitement faded.”

**Positive Developments:**

Despite the volatility, there were some positive developments that supported market sentiment. * Farooq highlighted that the country’s monthly current account was “in a comfortable position,” and corporations “posting strong profits,” which helped to alleviate investor concerns. * He also noted that inflation was at a record low, and the real effective exchange rate (REER) stood at 101. * Additionally, the market received relief that “no major escalation” occurred between India and Pakistan over the weekend, following the Pahalgam attack. **Market Sentiment:**

The market’s sentiment was influenced by the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India. * Farooq stated, “The market opened slightly higher today, supported by relief that no major escalation occurred between India and Pakistan over the weekend [following the Pahalgam attack].”

* He also mentioned that with most market participants expecting interest rate cuts ahead, there is potential for a rerating of the market’s PE [price-to-earning] multiple. * However, a significant upward move will likely require de-escalation between India and Pakistan. **Escalating Tensions:**

The tensions between Pakistan and India have been escalating since the April 22 attack in Pahalgam, which saw 26 people, mostly tourists, killed in what is being described as the deadliest armed attack in the disputed Himalayan region since the year 2000. * India unilaterally suspended the critical Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and Pakistan retaliated by threatening to put the Simla Agreement in abeyance and closing its airspace for Indian flights. * AKD Securities noted that the market had remained volatile last week due to escalating geopolitical tensions following the Pahalgam attack, and India’s subsequent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan in the aftermath of the incident, undermining investor sentiment.

Expert Comment
Awais Ashraf, AKD Securities Corporate results of heavyweight companies caused the index to fluctuate in today’s trading session.
Mohammed Sohail, Topline Securities Though some buying was seen in the morning session amid no major development on Pak-India front, investors remained cautious fearing that coming few days seem crucial in the ongoing tension between the two neighbours.
Yousuf M. Farooq, Chase Securities The market opened slightly higher today and then pulled back as initial excitement faded.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a rollercoaster of emotions on Monday as shares took control of the trade floor, plummeting over 1,400 points in intraday trading. The benchmark KSE-100 index, which had shown a brief respite from volatility, reversed its gains and declined more than 1,400 points after a week of heightened tensions between Pakistan and India. The index finally closed at 114,063.90, down by 1,405.44 points or 1.22pc, from the last close. Despite the volatility, there were some positive developments that supported market sentiment. The country’s monthly current account was “in a comfortable position,” and corporations “posting strong profits,” which helped to alleviate investor concerns. Inflation was at a record low, and the real effective exchange rate (REER) stood at 101. The market received relief that “no major escalation” occurred between India and Pakistan over the weekend, following the Pahalgam attack. The market’s sentiment was influenced by the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India. With most market participants expecting interest rate cuts ahead, there is potential for a rerating of the market’s PE [price-to-earning] multiple. However, a significant upward move will likely require de-escalation between India and Pakistan. The tensions between Pakistan and India have been escalating since the April 22 attack in Pahalgam, which saw 26 people, mostly tourists, killed in what is being described as the deadliest armed attack in the disputed Himalayan region since the year 2000. India unilaterally suspended the critical Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and Pakistan retaliated by threatening to put the Simla Agreement in abeyance and closing its airspace for Indian flights. AKD Securities noted that the market had remained volatile last week due to escalating geopolitical tensions following the Pahalgam attack, and India’s subsequent suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan in the aftermath of the incident, undermining investor sentiment.

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